范从来

论文题目：通货紧缩时期货币政策研究

作者简介：范从来，男，1962年09月出生，1999年02月师从于南京大学洪银兴教授，于2000年05月获博士学位。

摘  要

 

1997年以来，全球性的通货紧缩日趋明显，我国也出现了通货紧缩趋势。通货紧缩成为中国经济改革和发展在新世纪不得不面对的一个重大的现实经济问题。由于自20世纪30年代以来，世界各国都在不遗余力地解决经济运行中所面临的通货膨胀问题，对通货紧缩问题的研究相对不够全面和系统。对通货紧缩的内涵、通货紧缩的发生机制、通货紧缩的经济效应进行系统分析，在此基础上对通货紧缩时期货币政策的目标、效果和类型作出分析判断，既具有重大的现实意义，也具有一定的学术价值。

论文围绕着通货紧缩时期货币政策这一中心议题，以马克思经济学为指导，综合运用凯恩斯学派、货币主义学派、新凯恩斯学派以及新古典宏观经济学派的相关理论，首先分析了中国经济转轨阶段通货紧缩趋势的形成过程及其内涵，然后从理论和实证两个角度分析了中国通货紧缩的生成机制。其次，论述了我国通货紧缩时期货币量、价格总水平和经济增长之间的关系，据此对我国的货币政策目标作出了选择。再次，通过对通货紧缩时期货币政策传导机制的分析，论证了通货紧缩时期货币政策的有效性，在此基础上，引入了时滞、价格－工资调整机制和理性预期等因素，对通货紧缩时期货币政策的类型进行了分析，提出了通货紧缩时期实施主动性通货非膨胀的货币政策主张。

论文共由5章组成，其结构和主要内容如下：

第1章  通货紧缩的一般界定。本章主要从理论高度对通货紧缩的定义、内涵和测度作出界定。对通货紧缩一词的定义，在理论界大致分成两大派：“价格派” 和“货币派”。本文认为通货紧缩表现为货币量紧缩与价格总水平的持续下降。通货紧缩中的货币量紧缩，不是一般所说的货币供给量的紧缩，是货币流通量的紧缩。这种货币流通量的紧缩，一方面表现为现实流通货币量的紧缩，另一方面表现为货币流通速度下降，以及相应的实际货币流通量的紧缩。正是在这样的意义上，我们说中国出现了通货紧缩的趋势，有必要对通货紧缩时期的货币政策进行系统的探讨。

第2章  货币量紧缩的发生机制。这一章主要是分析货币量紧缩的原因。通货紧缩时期能不能实施有效的货币政策，关键就在于能不能对货币量紧缩的原因作出准确的分析判断。货币量紧缩的原因在理论上可以分为两类：外生性和内生性。外生性理论假设货币供给是由中央银行独立决定的。内生性则认为，货币量紧缩是经济中的货币需求不足引起的经济现象，其根源在于经济方面的原因。通过对通货紧缩时期我国基础货币和信贷量变动状况的分析，笔者发现中央银行再贷款萎缩、货币发行量下降是造成我国货币量外生性紧缩的重要原因，东南亚金融危机的爆发则通过外汇占款这一发行渠道导致我国基础货币发生了内生性紧缩，并且通过商业银行的惜贷行为导致了我国信贷量的内生性紧缩和费雪的债务紧缩效应，通货紧缩趋势形成。

第3章  经济周期中的通货紧缩。本章通过经济周期理论和实际数据对经济周期中的通货紧缩进行分析。研究表明，中国的经济增长无论是在过去的计划经济时期，还是在目前的转轨经济时期，都存在着周期性的波动。经济增长的周期性波动有可能会导致相应的货币量波动和价格总水平波动，通货紧缩有可能是一种短期的经济现象。政府为治理通货紧缩所采取的货币政策是一种短期性的政策选择。但是，这种短期性的政策选择在经济周期性波动过程中又是有可能经常面对的。过去那种单一的通货膨胀时代有可能转变为通货膨胀和通货紧缩在不同时点交替出现的新阶段。我们应当对传统的单纯“反通货膨胀政策”进行动态化的调整，将反通货膨胀政策和反通货紧缩政策在不同时点上结合起来。

第4章  通货紧缩的效应。这一章分析的目的是要从理论上解释，反通货紧缩应该不应该纳入我国货币政策的目标体系。第二次世界大战以来，世界各国都程度不同地面临着通货膨胀，反通货膨胀成为各国中央银行货币政策的主要目标之一。在通货膨胀、通货紧缩有可能交替出现的背景下，通过对价格总水平持续下降条件下，庇古财富效应的转向、凯恩斯利率效应的转向和蒙代尔－弗莱明汇率效应的制约等方面的分析，本文论证了通货紧缩对总需求的负向效应。笔者通过对产出－物价菲利普斯曲线的理论论证和实证分析，得出的结论是，我国改革以后存在着短期的菲利普斯曲线，与通货紧缩相伴随的是经济增长率的下降，我国近几年快速的通货紧缩对经济增长产生了很大的负向冲击，反通货紧缩应该成为我国货币政策的目标。

第5章  通货紧缩时期的货币政策。这一章我借鉴货币主义的研究方法，分析通货紧缩时期货币政策的有效性。对我国的利率水平、货币的流动性需求、投资的利率弹性等方面的分析表明，中国没有陷入流动性陷阱，通货紧缩时期货币政策是有效的。至于在通货紧缩时期应该采取怎样的货币政策，是实施主动性货币政策，还是实施非主动性的货币政策？笔者认为非主动性货币政策是以市场机制非常发达，价格－工资机制比较健全为条件的，一般国家的市场机制达不到这种要求，通货紧缩时期应该实施主动性通货非膨胀货币政策。一方面，中央银行不应该放弃货币政策，而是要采取多种手段增加现实流通的货币量，防止经济活动恶化，为经济复苏创造必要条件；另一方面，通货紧缩时期的货币政策不是简单的放松银根，更不是为了创造通货膨胀预期，是一种通货非膨胀的货币政策。

论文试图在以下几个方面作出有创新价值的研究。

1、通货紧缩表现为货币量紧缩与价格总水平的持续下降。通货紧缩中的货币量紧缩，不是一般所说的货币供给量的紧缩，是货币流通量的紧缩。这种货币流通量的紧缩，一方面表现为现实流通货币量的紧缩，另一方面表现为货币流通速度下降，以及相应的实际货币流通量的紧缩。

2、运用货币主义理论和费雪的债务紧缩理论对货币量紧缩的发生机制进行系统的分析，指出了货币量紧缩的外生性和内生性的共存性，以及东南亚金融危机对我国通货紧缩的冲击效应。

3、造成经济活动周期性波动的原因是多方面的，货币量和信贷量只是其中的一个重要的因素，不是全部因素。但是，经济周期发生后，货币量会产生相应的变动，并导致货币量和信贷量的紧缩。货币量、信贷量紧缩是经济衰退阶段的重要表现，具有很强的内生性。

4、通过对我国价格波动从改革前的“低位－平缓”型“慢升快降”转变为改革后的“高位－大起大落”型“陡升慢降”状态的分析，指出随着我国计划价格形成机制向市场价格形成机制的转变、买方市场的形成以及通货膨胀压力的释放，我国价格总水平的波动进入了一个新阶段：从过去单一的通货膨胀转变为通货膨胀和通货紧缩在不同时点交替出现。我们应当对传统的单纯“反通货膨胀政策”进行动态化的调整，将反通货膨胀政策和反通货紧缩政策在不同时点上结合起来。

5、通过对价格总水平持续下降条件下，庇古财富效应的转向、凯恩斯利率效应的转向和蒙代尔－弗莱明汇率效应的制约等方面的分析，得出通货紧缩对总需求产生自我螺旋式的负向效应的结论。

6、实证分析了我国的产出－物价菲利普斯曲线，并据此对我国的货币政策目标作出了选择。

7、论证通货紧缩时期货币政策的有效性，在货币政策传导机制中引入时滞、价格－工资调整机制和理性预期等因素，提出通货紧缩时期实施主动性通货非膨胀的货币政策主张。

 

 

论文关键词： 通货紧缩  经济周期  货币量  价格总水平  货币政策 

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

   Since 1997, deflation has become an increasing obvious economic issue, both internationally and in China. It has created a realistic problem that China has to confront in the new century on its way to reform and development. Since every country have done its utmost to solve the inflation problem that has continually existed from the 1920's, research on deflation is relatively less comprehensive and systematic. However, more work should be done on deflation, including the content, mechanism and consequential effects, as well as monetary policy goals, effects and types in deflationary periods. This analysis is of both academic and realistic value.

   This paper synthesized the theories of Marxism, Keynesianism, monetary and neoclassical rational expectation to analyze the deflation problem in China. First, it looks into the formation and content of deflation in the economic transitional process, then analyze the mechanism and periodicity from both theoretical and practical perspective. Second, it gives several alternative goal of China's monetary policy based on analysis of the relationship between money supply, aggregate price level and economic growth. It then demonstrates the validity of monetary policy in deflationary periods through an insight into the monetary policy mechanism. Grounded on all these theories and analysis, it analyzes the types of monetary policy together with the introduction of factors such as time lag, price-wage adjustment mechanism, and rational expectation. The thesis concludes that positive non-inflationary monetary policy should be adopted in deflationary periods.

The paper divided into five chapters:

   Chapter 1 gives the general definition of deflation, gives the theoretical explanation of its definition, content and measurement. There are two schools of thoughts on this issue: price-oriented and monetary school. In this paper it is defined as the shrinkage of money together with the decreasing of aggregate price level. The shrinkage of money in deflation is not refer to money supply as it is generally defined, but it refers to the shrinkage in the amount of money in circulation. This is reflected in two fields: the real money in circulation and the decreasing velocity of money circulation. Based on this definition, the paper concludes that China has entered into the deflationary period and it is necessary to do systematic researches on monetary policy required by this situation.

   Chapter 2 gives an explanation to the formation mechanism of deflation especially the shrinkage of money. The effectiveness of monetary policy in this period depends on the accurate analysis and judgement of the reason for deflation. In theory, there are two reasons: exogenous and endogenous. Exogenous theory assumes that money supply is determined independently by the central bank, however the endogenous theory argues that shrinkage in money is the economic result of insufficient money demand and there are economic reasons embedded. The paper analyzes the evolution process of basic money and credit amount and concludes that the important exogenous reason for the deflation in China is the shrinkage in central bank re-debt and the decrease in money supply. At the same time, Southeast Asia financial crisis impact endogenously on money supply through foreign exchange occupied, meanwhile the unwilling to debt behavior of the commercial banks caused the endogenous shrink in credit amount and the Fischer debt-deflation effect, which complete the formation process of China's deflation.

   Chapter 3 uses the business cycle theory and statistics to analysis deflation in business cycles. It shows that economic growth in China has cyclical fluctuations both in the command economy period and the transitional period. The cyclical fluctuations of economic growth will possibly cause the fluctuation in money and aggregate price level, in which deflation is a short-term phenomenon and the policy the government adopted is also short-term choices that it often have to confront in economic cyclical changes. The onefold inflationary period in the past will turn into the alternative periods of inflation and deflation. We should give some dynamic adjustment to the anti-inflationary policy and combine anti-deflationary one with it at different time.

   Chapter 4 gives an explanation of the effects of deflation, which further explains whether anti-deflationary policy should be included in monetary policy goals in China. Since the Second World War, inflation has been a major problem to almost all countries in the world and anti-inflation is the major role of their monetary policy. Considering the alternative periods of inflation and deflation, the paper discusses the changes in Pico wealth effect, keynsian interest rate effect and the constraint of Mundell- Flamin exchange rate effect based on the decreasing aggregate price level and gives the negative effect of deflation on aggregate demand. Using the theoretical and practical proof, the paper concludes that the short-term Philips curve exists in China after the reform and decrease in economic growth rate accompanies deflation. The deflation happened in recent years put a heavy negative effect on growth and anti-deflation should be the goal of our monetary goal.

   Chapter 5 gives the policy choices in deflationary periods, using the monetary school methodology to analysis the effectiveness of monetary policy in deflationary periods. Analysis on interest rate, liquidity demand of money and the interest rate elasticity of investment show that China has not formed the liquidity gap and monetary policy is effective. Then the paper analyzes types of monetary policy, it concludes that non-active policy should based on the advanced market system and a complete price-wage mechanism which is not realistic for most countries. So the realistic choice for them should be the active non-inflationary policy: the central bank should not give away monetary policy and they should increase money supply in different ways to prevent eroding of the economy and create necessary situation for economic recovery. And the policy in this period is neither simply loose money control nor creates inflationary expectation, it is a non-inflationary policy.

The paper does some creative research in the following fields:

   1. Deflation is defined as the combination of shrinkage in money and decrease in aggregate price level.  The shrinkage of money in deflation is not refer to money supply as it is generally defined, but it refers to the shrinkage in the amount of money in circulation. This is reflected in two fields: the real money in circulation and the decreasing velocity of money circulation.  

   2. The paper uses monetary methodology and Fischer debt-deflation to analysis systematically the formation mechanism. It shows the coexistence of exogenous and endogenous elements. Also shows the impact of Southeast Asia financial crisis on deflation in China.

   3. There are comprehensive reasons for economic cyclical fluctuation, money and credit is one of the important elements, not all. But business cycle take place, there will be changes in money supply, which in turn shrinks the credit and money amount. These are both characters of economic recession and have a strong endogenous character.

   4. The paper analyzes the changes in price fluctuation: from the "low-smooth", "slow up- quick down" before the reform process and "high level-fluctuating", "quick up-slow down" after the reform. It points out that the price fluctuation has entered into a new period: from single inflation to alternative deflation and inflation periods during the formation process of market price, buyer-market and the outburst of inflation pressure. We should do some dynamic changes to the simple anti-inflationary policy and combine the anti-inflationary and anti-deflationary policy together. 

   5. The paper discusses the changes in Pico wealth effect, keynsian interest rate effect and the constraint of Mundell- Flamin exchange rate effect based on the decreasing aggregate price level situation. It concludes that deflation has a self-enforcing negative effect on aggregate demand.

   6. It analyzes the output-price Philips Curve in China and makes a judgement for China's monetary policy as a conclusion.

   7.  it introduced elements such as time-lag, price-wage adjustment, and rational expectations to define the effectiveness of monetary policy, which gives the conclusion that active non-inflationary policy should be adopted in deflationary periods.

 

Key words: deflation, business cycle, money supply, aggregate price level, monetary policy